The Maths of Coronavirus

[Carole]

i am not sure about other people but in our whole extended family spread out over the whole south east we have only heard of 1 confirmed case 58yrs (survived) and a 4 year old child slight symptoms.
Is this similar to other peoples experience so far ?

Just heard of a death in the "sort of family" due to Coronavirus.  My husband's sister in law's partner (she is divorced from Adrian's brother donkeys years ago) died in Lewisham Hospital.  He wasn't young and had other health issues, but still a blow for my sister in law who is 80+ and no-one knows how he got it as neither of them have been out for 4 weeks.  Just wondering if something was transmitted on deliveries, (friends helping them with shopping)!!!

We are now worried for sister in law although she has not developed any symptoms as yet (day 8 apparently).  Nieces are keeping us informed.

Carole

[Mac]

I've seen several interesting reports recently about the efficacy of breathing exercises ~ some from doctors via social media ~ which I'm probably going to start.  They revolve around deep breathing exercises lasting a few minutes ~ the couple named Abel, who featured quite early on on TV reporting from the cruise ship and who ended up in hospital as positive ~ have also reported via social media on recovery that they had used them and it had helped.

Hmmmm, i thought the breathing myths were debunked.

If not, it would be interesting to see how many musicians have caught this and gone in to intensive care, only the fact that we do this type of breathing exercise all the time, normally for a few hours a day.

Just wondering.

Mac.

Also on a completely different but relevant tangent.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/adhocs/10714deathsregisteredweeklyfrom1993to2018byregionenglandandwales

Weekly statistics on the total uk deaths per week since 1993 from the national office of statistics.

The average is 10'000 per week

The highest was 20566 per week in 2000
The lowest  was  6583  per week in 2013

Mac

[Hugh]

Hi Mack,

Your right that you should be cautious about things like breathing exercises and their efficacy in times like these but this information has been reported on the TV and within the Times newspaper ~ the link, which I hope will work if you want to view, is as below: ~

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jk-rowling-breathing-video-helped-my-coronavirus-symptoms-7lrr3tt8z

It's clearly not right for everyone and the cough part should be used appropriately.  The advice apparently revolves around the fact that it opens up all your lungs which are mostly contained within your back area.  The treatment for the virus in hospital does involve some who are on breathing support to be on the their front to assist breathing (conscious and on CPAP) at times and those on ventilators are turned, over a 16 hour period, onto their backs and front.

It might be nothing new in terms of this sort of exercises, I certainly know nothing of singers breathing exercises, but it seems that undertaken judiciously it's a 'shot to nothing' that just might help at a later time of adversity?

Keep washing your hands!

Best

Hugh

[ApophisAstros]

Made me really sad to see the mass graves in New York,  allegedly only the poor who cant afford a funeral ,  it reminded me of some scenes in WW2 ,
Roger

[Rick]

A little more on the reliability (and otherwise) of the numbers being thrown at the media (and then on to us) regarding the course of the pandemic:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/12/coronavirus-statistics-what-can-we-trust-and-what-should-we-ignore

As for breathing exercises; the most severe stage of COVID-19 infection targets the lungs. It seems to me that anything you can do that increases your lung capacity and ability to get rid of congestion will help you if it gets that bad. (I remember hearing an interview many years ago with a celebrity opera singer who'd had a close call with something respiratory, and who put his survival down to the exercises he did for his singing, but that's just another anecdote.)

[Carole]

They should also be showing the figures of presumed Coronavirus (i.e. with symptoms but untested) to get a better picture.

Just heard a brother of a friend is in intensive care.

Also the BBC website says There are 724 confirmed cases in Bromley, out of a local population of 331,096, I have been watching this double in the last week.

Carole

[Hugh]

To put a bit of context to that, the 724 represents just 0.22% of the 300+ thousand in the Bromley area.  Of course, the actual number is probably much larger as those with it are still hidden within the community.  However, it will still be a small percentage which one hopes the lock down will help keep manageable.

Hugh

[ApophisAstros]

To put a bit of context to that, the 724 represents just 0.22% of the 300+ thousand in the Bromley area.  Of course, the actual number is probably much larger as those with it are still hidden within the community.  However, it will still be a small percentage which one hopes the lock down will help keep manageable.

Hugh

Even smaller percentages the further you get from towns ie west sussex .045% , Kent .095%.
Roger

[NoelC]

Very interesting article on the reliability of the stats Rick.
This blog by the statistician in charge of the Covid-19 tracking data is also quite revealing:-
https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2020/03/31/counting-deaths-involving-the-coronavirus-covid-19/
In it she posts the following chart:

As you can see the picture of how many people had died on the 20th of March was totally different to that 5 days later, 50% of the deaths being reported 5-10 days after they occured.  It appears paperwork is still coming in for deaths which occurred over a month previously. The figures for the first day deaths are still going up on the latest data. So when the government announced that the first person had died from Covid-19, ONS are now saying 8 people had died on that day and the figure may go up further.

While a statistical fact of life for ONS; it really means there are no meaningful stats to do epidemiology on, and consequently all the 'we are nearly over the peak' announcements need to be treated with extreme caution.  If we aren't at the peak, we are in a far worse position in terms of the risk of getting infected; don't be tempted to ease off any of your precautions.

In all the stats I've read the most worrying factor is the suggestion that anything up to 50% of those infected are asymptomatic (carriers only).  You now have to treat everyone you meet as if they are infected.

[Rick]

I figure the number of confirmed cases is a tip-of-the-iceberg number. There's no widespread systematic testing, so all they're really doing is saying how many of the relatively few tests they have done have actually come out positive. Want a smaller number? Just test fewer people. I, for one, won't trust or be reassured by it.

The nearest you can get to an accurate figure at present is still the number of deaths, because deaths have to be registered, but for all sorts of reasons even it's a somewhat suspect number. For one, it seems only deaths that happen in hospitals make it into the figure the government issues each day, and it's becoming clear that there are plenty of people who die of the virus elsewhere who therefore don't get counted. Care homes are today's focus. (See https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52275823 for example.) The graph Roger posted is interesting because you can see how, as the reports come in over time, the recorded numbers rise.

I think the best indication of the true scale of the epidemic at present is probably the report from the Office of National Statistics. They reported that the overall death rate in the week up to April 3rd was the highest weekly death rate they'd recorded since they started doing weekly counts in 2005. It's a pity they havn't gone back and produced comparable counts further into the past, but even that's a hint.

For more details about the figures, see https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/14/coronavirus-pushes-england-death-rate-to-highest-level-ever and note the way the proportion of deaths associated with the virus is changing. It was 5% of the 11141 deaths in the week up to 27th March, and 22% of the 16387 deaths in the week up to 3rd April. What's interesting there is that 22% of 16387 is considerably less than the 5246 deaths' difference between the two weeks. I suspect that both the 5% and the 22% figures simply reflect the fact that the virus, despite being a notifiable disease, is being confirmed as involved in only a proportion of the cases for which it is actually responsible. I'd not be at all surprised if the actual count was more than double the reported figures.

I'll treat all the numbers with caution, especially if they seem to be trying to make me think the situation is less serious than it seems, and keep up with all the precautions I can manage.

Stay safe and healthy, folks.

[MarkS]

The government might recommend wearing face masks when we go outside for shopping etc.

So buy yours here before they sell out:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Johnson-Politician-Celebrity-Single-Elastic/dp/B07XF1CQL3

Mark

[Carole]

 

I didn't take any notice regarding not wearing a mask right from the outset, just doesn't make sense to me, a barrier even sub-standard has to be better than no barrier at all, so have been making my own.

Might not be Medical standard but IMO better than nothing and they go straight in the wash after one wear, being careful how they are taken off.  Hands washed at the same time.

Having said that I stopped going out even to walk the dog  a few weeks ago (we have a dog walker now), but Adrian goes to get a daily paper and any quick to grab item we might have run out of from the corner shop with a mask on.

Even in the house I had reason to wear a mask when we took delivery of a new fridge freezer when I went into the hall to collect where they has deposited it (just inside the door), with mask and rubber gloves on while I washed it down with soapy water and disinfectant. 

I even made one out of a bra cup.  Caused some hilarity on other forums and FB. 
Bit of thin garden wire accross the bridge of the nose so it can be pinched around the nose.

Adrian refuses to wear this version.  lol

Not sure if you can see this copied from FB:

[NoelC]

Excellent
I think you should send that to Matt Hancock - he can then keep abreast of the PPE crisis!

[Carole]

 

[ApophisAstros]

I saw this and thought of you.

Enough said...LoL
Roger