Possible Camelopardalid meteor shower - 23/24th May

[Rick]

A New Meteor Shower in May?

The head of NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office, Dr. Bill Cooke, often lets cameras do his sky watching for him.  He and his colleagues operate a nationwide network of automated fireball observatories that capture anything that burns into Earth's atmosphere.

On the morning of May 24th, however, he plans to go out in person.

"There could be a new meteor shower, and I want to see it with my own eyes," says Cooke.

The shower is the May Camelopardalids, caused by dust from periodic comet 209P/LINEAR.  No one has ever seen it before, but this year the Camelopardalids could put on a display that rivals the well-known Perseids of August.

"Some forecasters have predicted more than 200 meteors per hour," says Cooke.

More: http://science1.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/06may_newshower/

(I wonder what the general press will make of this; nothing, or crazy hype about millions of meteors?)

[MarkS]

(I wonder what the general press will make of this; nothing, or crazy hype about millions of meteors?)

Maybe they learnt their lesson from the comet of the century - Comet ISON.

24th May puts it firmly within Deep Sky Camp

[mickw]

24th May puts it firmly within Deep Sky Camp

So it will be cloudy then 

[Mike]

Don't forget that (weather permitting) on Friday night into Saturday morning there is a chance of a spectacular meteor shower as Earth passes through the tail of Comet 209P/LINEAR that has been perturbed from it's orbit by Jupiter.

It may well turn out to be a damp squib (literally if the weather forecast is right) but then again, you will kick yourself if you wake up on Saturday morning and everyone is reporting a spectacular show and you went toed early instead.

Estimates range from 5 per minute to 1 per second depending on the size of the cloud of debris we pass through.

The best time to view it will be past midnight. Look North towards Camelopardis.

Good luck!!

Mike

[MarkS]

The Society for Popular Astronomy is a bit more restrained:
http://www.popastro.com/meteor/activity/activity.php?id_pag=314

The predictions indicate a narrow peak (or several close peaks) on the morning of May 24th at some time between 06h and 08h UT (7am to 9am BST) , with most favouring the early part of the second hour. This will be during the hours of daylight from the UK, but would be well timed for observers in the United States and southern Canada. Based on the narrowness of the peak, the ZHR seen pre-dawn by observers in western Europe would probably only be around 10.

The predicted radiant is at around RA 08h15m, Dec +79. This is in Camelopardalis and so will be in the northern sky - an area of sky that doesn't become fully dark at this time of the year for much of the UK. The radiant will be at around 40 deg altitude above the northern horizon as dawn approaches. 

Nevertheless, it may still be worthwhile for UK observers to monitor for possible pre-dawn activity on the morning of the 24th - just in case there are surprises.

[Mike]

I'll check the weather forecast on the day and perhaps set a few alarms and poke my head out occasionally.

[Rick]

[BAA-ebulletin 00803] POSSIBLE NEW METEOR SHOWER
(c) 2014 British Astronomical Association    http://www.britastro.org/

POSSIBLE NEW METEOR SHOWER

On the night on 2014 May 23/24, there is a strong possibility of meteor activity from a new shower connected with periodic comet 209P/LINEAR.

The parent comet 209P/LINEAR is a Jupiter-family comet with a period of 5.1 years.  It was discovered in February 2004 by the Lincoln Near-Earth Asteroid Research project, a cooperative effort of NASA, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory, and the US Air Force.  The comet last passed perihelion on 2014 May 6, at a distance of 0.97 AU from the Sun.

Peak rates could be anywhere between 30 m/h and 400 m/h, but activity may well be comparable with that of the annual Perseid shower - although any burst in activity could be fairly short-lived - but with the size distribution skewed towards the larger meteoroids, there may be a preponderance of bright meteors.

Calculations by Esko Lyytinen of Finland and Peter Jenniskens of the NASA Ames Research Center indicate that the shower will be caused mainly by dust ejected from the comet back in the early 1800s.  However, nobody can be sure exactly how much dust will be encountered by the Earth on May 23/24, because we do not know how active Comet 209P/LINEAR was back in the 1800s.

If there is meteor activity, the peak is predicted for between 0600 and 0800 UT on the morning of 2014 May 24, unfortunately during daylight hours from the UK.  Observers in North and South America will be favoured IF peak activity occurs at the predicted time, BUT those in Northern Europe should be vigilant during the night of May 23/24, particularly during the pre-dawn hours. There is the chance of spotting some early members of the shower and there is always the possibility that the predicted time of the peak could be in error by several hours.

The radiant of the shower will be in the northern part of Camelopardalis centred on RA  8h 08m, Decl. +79o, only about 11 degrees from the Pole Star. There will be no interference from moonlight.

The BAA Meteor Section would be very interested in receiving any observations of  possible meteors from this new shower. Please send them to meteor at britastro org.

This e-bulletin issued by:
John W. Mason,
Director, BAA Meteor Section
2014 May 22